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The views and perspectives contained in these Blogs are from individual contributors and external sources, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or position of the Cordoba Peace Institute - Geneva. The links are neither intended as an endorsement of particular publications nor the only source for the updates, but to connect to information in the public domain, for those interested in background or further details.

1: History Being Repeated

"Structures are always similar in their main features, but they always vary in the delicate details to give some flavor to the acts of history when it repeats itself; yet, every time, it is repeated with many new twists".

It was once said that Tunisia is not Egypt; claiming that the revolution in Tunisia cannot reach or take place in Egypt. The assumption of the fool is always to build an argument based on detailed differences and ignoring the most shocking and alarming similarities. Egypt was another Tunisia after all as it witnessed a revolution on January 25th, 2011.

Celebrating Assad's troops fearless killing of all Syrians, it was said that Syria is not going to be another Arab Sprig country. It was claimed that "Assad has managed to impose his will on the leaders of the world". To the surprise of many, this was the opinion of Olivier Roy expressed in February 2012 when speaking to France 2 channel. Such arguments would have remained true and could have become completely true if one could claim that Bashar Al Assad – who continued to use aggressive military force against his people for more than two and half years – will succeed in what Gaddafi tried to do in Libya in six months of fighting before he was killed.

Now, it is said that Egypt is not Syria; yet, who could be sure that the acts, procedures and mode of handling the opposition by the regime in Syria are not being cloned in Egypt by Abdel Fattah El Sisi. Who could be sure that the disaster in Syria will not be repeated in Egypt against the Brotherhood, the Islamists and consequently the whole society in the same way where the situation escalated in Syria between Bashar and the rest of the non-Baathist Syrians in their different colors?

Syria did not and does not need a Coup or a Counter-Revolution like Egypt now. This is for a simple reason; the regime of Assad still stands and the man on the top of it feels secure against any genuine western, European or American, attempt to remove him from office. El Sisi just thinks the same. He thinks that the more he becomes similar to Bashar Al Assad in everything, the more he would become immune against any act against him by the West. He believed that he would be everlasting in office as long as the Westerners will eventually absorb the shock of the Coup and start dealing with him when he becomes officially and democratically elected as President (of course, the Mubarak way and not the Morsi way).

The political advisor to the interim President (advisor and now spokesman of the military regime) was a good choice for the military junta to justify the killing that took place in what we could name "The Black August" over the past week (on August 14th in Rabaa and Nahda then 16th and 17th throughout the nation).

Compared with El Baradei who resigned over the killing and the bloodshed, and who opposed the use of force to end the sit-ins and called for peaceful solutions, Hegazy is the direct true opposite, as he, representing the Egyptian everlasting militarized ideology, is a person who believes in building a "modern" nation and a State by all Egyptians who are "united more than ever before", as he said, behind "the military" (and – of course – a charismatic military ruler).

It was not haphazard that the new "militarized" regime chose Hegazy to represent them in this press conference, being well dressed in a civilian uniform and well versed in English language. He was a good replacement to El Baradei as a civilian and Col. Ahmed Ali, the military spokesman. Hegazy does not have to lie because he defends his own belief on this matter; he defends "the rule of the military generals" as the path to "modernity" as an alternative to democracy under the strictly unified mentally pre militarized mass of the society.

This was exactly the dream and the modernist project of Mohamed Ali Basha in the 19th century and then that of Nasser with a Marxist Maoist twist in the 20th century. It is exactly equal to the Nazi way in Germany of Adolf Hitler who wanted to inspire the German nation towards that end. It seems elementary certain that Hegazy believes that El Sisi and the military would be the objective equal to Mohammed Ali and Nasser in the 21st century version.

Contrairement à la vision promue par l'armée, la situation en Egypte n'est pas celle d'un combat entre pro-islamistes et anti-islamistes mais bien le résultat d'un coup d'Etat militaire.

Les événements des derniers jours en Egypte témoignent de l'extrême brutalité d'une dictature militaire revenue (ou demeurée) au pouvoir, de l'incapacité de la communauté internationale à condamner fermement la violence contre des civils lorsqu'elle est prétendument dirigée contre des «islamistes», et de la stratégie de manipulation mise en place par un pouvoir ne pouvant s'appuyer sur aucune légitimité démocratique.

The past days' events in Egypt demonstrate the extreme virulence of a military dictatorship that seems to be back (or remained) in the political arena, the incapacity of the international community to firmly condemn the violence used against civilians, when it is so-called led against "islamists", and the manipulation's strategy driven by a power that cannot rely on any democratic legitimacy.

Came to power through what is first, described as a revolution by those who, ignoring the democratic frame when applied to islamists, reject the idea of a coup d'état, the army now reveals its true face, strengthening some people in their blind support to a brutish regime, as long as it pretends to be opposed to 'bearded people', sometimes embarrassing its followers from the first days, when it is not scaring away to Vienna its supposed leader, worried to be one day sued for crimes against humanity.

We are told that some churches are burnt down, Christians are threatened, and museums are stolen. The "charia" application is claimed, "djihad" is called. Over and above the death of individuals, it seems that once again we assist, and in the extension of a politics expressed by Bush in 2001, to a war between the "good" and the "evil". Today, the army introduces itself as the life saver of Egypt, the Middle East, even of the world against obscurantism and the conservatism of the so-called islamists. Playing the modernity and minorities' protector card, the army justifies by the violence used against Coptics and the destruction of the national heritage, the declaration of the state of emergency and the bloody repression towards the "guilty": the Muslim Brothers or the islamists in general.

يعد عزل الرئيس محمد مرسي من قبل الجيش المصري انقلابا عسكريا بكل جلاء وبساطة. حيث ينطبق على عزل مرسي تعريف الانقلاب العسكري الذي يتمثل في الإطاحة غير القانونية برئيس الدولة من قبل الجيش أو فصيل داخله، أو من قبل الأجهزة الأمنية، من خلال استخدام القوة أو التهديد باستخدامها. وتذكرنا التجارب السابقة للانقلابات العسكرية مثل إسقاط حكومة مصدق في إيران في عام 1953، وسلفادور ألاندي في تشيلي في عام 1973، والانقلاب العسكري في الجزائر في عام 1992 بأن الانقلابات العسكرية ليست أبدا أداة ذكية لتسوية النزاعات. إن الانقلاب العسكري في مصر لشهادة مؤسفةعلى فشل جميع الفاعلين السياسيين وأصحاب المصلحة في إدارة المرحلة الانتقالية، نتيجة للاستقطاب الحاد.

فما هي التحديات التي تواجهها مصر اليوم بعد تعليق الدستور وتولي الجيش لإدارة شؤون البلاد؟

L'éviction du président Mohamed Morsi par l'armée égyptienne est un coup d'Etat militaire pur et simple. En effet, cette éviction répond à la définition d'un renversement illégal de la tête de l'Etat par l'armée, une faction interne, ou les services de sécurité, par l'utilisation de la force ou de la menace de l'utiliser. Les expériences passées de coups d'Etats militaires comme le renversement du gouvernement Mossadegh en Iran en 1953, de Salvador Allende au Chili en 1973, ou encore le putsch militaire en Algérie de 1992 nous rappellent que les coups d'Etats militaires ne sont jamais un bon mécanisme pour la résolution de conflits. Le coup d'Etat militaire en Egypte est un témoignage regrettable de l'échec de tous les acteurs politiques et des parties engagées dans la manière de gérer la période de transition qui a été caractérisée par une très forte polarisation.

Aujourd'hui, alors que la constitution a été suspendue et que l'armée a repris le pouvoir, quels sont les défis à relever pour l'Egypte ?